11.0716 old IBM statement

Humanist Discussion Group (humanist@kcl.ac.uk)
Tue, 28 Apr 1998 20:08:15 +0100 (BST)

Humanist Discussion Group, Vol. 11, No. 716.
Centre for Computing in the Humanities, King's College London
<http://www.princeton.edu/~mccarty/humanist/>
<http://www.kcl.ac.uk/humanities/cch/humanist/>

[1] From: Ari Kambouris <aristotl@interport.net> (21)
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

[2] From: Orth_Michael_P/cpslo_employee1@polymail.cpunix.calp (4)
oly.edu
Subject: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

[3] From: Jack Lynch <jlynch@dept.english.upenn.edu> (10)
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

[4] From: Dorothy Day <day@indiana.edu> (41)
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

[5] From: Peter Evans <peterev@alles.or.jp> (26)
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

--[1]------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Mon, 27 Apr 1998 18:15:30 -0400
From: Ari Kambouris <aristotl@interport.net>
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

I believe that this was something to the effect that there will never be a
need for more than 3 computers to house all of the information in the
world. Unfortunately, I can only suggest that you contact the following
witness to the actual event, but cannot provide his address.

I was recently at the Interactive Culture Conference in NY
<http://www.interactive-culture.org> and one of the speakers, Marvin
Denicoff, a co-founder, in 1983, of Thinking Machines Corporation and an
affiliate with MIT's Media Lab in the as a Principal Research Associate,
corrected one of the other panelist who brought up the same quote. He had
been at the meeting/conference where the chief of IBM made this statement.
Perhaps he could be contacted through his position at MIT.

Good Luck,

Ari

_________________________________________
Ari Kambouris
The Metaphor Group, Inc.
tel. 212.740.6306
pager 917.243.1548 (number then # key)
e-mail <aristotl@interport.net>

--[2]------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Mon, 27 Apr 1998 15:54:39 -0700
From: Orth_Michael_P/cpslo_employee1@polymail.cpunix.calpoly.edu
Subject: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

I bet me means the statement by Watson (I think), president of IBM then,
that the total world need for computers would not be more than three or
four.

Obviously, I don't have the quote quite, but that's close. And any book
about Watson should turn it up.

--[3]------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Mon, 27 Apr 1998 21:27:19 -0400 (EDT)
From: Jack Lynch <jlynch@dept.english.upenn.edu>
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

Iain Brown writes:

> "I was going to quote the statement made in the 50's by IBM
> about the total needs of the world in terms of computing
> capacity, but i don't have the actual quote - it you can find
> it, it would be good to use."
>
> So - does anyone have details of the original quotation, or know where I
> might be able to find it?

I remember hearing it when I toured Penn's ENIAC Museum. The (then-?)
curator of the museum is called Paul Shaffer; you can reach him at
pws@eniac.seas.upenn.edu -- perhaps he'll know the source.

--[4]------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Mon, 27 Apr 1998 23:33:18 -0500 (EST)
From: Dorothy Day <day@indiana.edu>
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

See the following:
http://www.iste.org/Publications/Future/Chapter2.html

which is a chapter of *The Future of Information Technology in
Education,* containing a number of such amusing quotations. This one is
given as:

I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
(Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.)

Unfortunately, everywhere I've seen the quote, that's all the
information provided. Everyone seem satisfied with getting a laugh, and
no one bothers to say where the remark was made or first reported.
Perhaps a search of a newspaper index for that year could turn it up.

*****
Dorothy Day
School of Library and Information Science
Indiana University
day@indiana.edu
*****
"He also surfs who only sits and waits."

--[5]------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Tue, 28 Apr 1998 17:37:44 +0900
From: Peter Evans <peterev@alles.or.jp>
Subject: Re: 11.0710 old IBM statement?

Iain Brown wonders on an editor's behalf about "the statement made in the
50's by IBM about the total needs of the world in terms of computing
capacity".

My guess is that it is something allegedly said in 1943 by Thomas Watson,
chairman of IBM: "I think there is a world market for maybe five
computers." This quotation is one of a number that appear on numerous web
pages, among them:

"Predictions" <http://www.ncns.com/predict.html>
"Quotes" <http://lwg2.res.lehigh.edu/quotes.html>
"Views on the Future" <http://www.tac.nyc.ny.us/~kim/junk/future.html>
"If They only Knew"
<http://warp.eecs.berkeley.edu/os2/funpage/last_words.html>
"Open Mouth, Insert Foot" <http://byrdd.home.mindspring.com/fun/quotes.htm>
"Wet Blankets throughout History"
<http://www.columbia.edu/~jhr18/humor/wet_blankets_history.html>

None purports to say where this or any of the other quotations comes from.
I wonder if some are apocryphal. A quarter of an hour's Hotbotting around
produced nothing more authoritative than their presentation in Prof. Ralph
Droms' outline for Bucknell University's Fall 1996 course CS320, Computer
Architecture: <http://www.eg.bucknell.edu/~cs320/1996-fall/index.html>;
Professor Droms also does not give his sources, but as he gives his mail
address you might ask him.

Perhaps the quotation appears in Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky's *The
Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation*
(1984); I don't have a copy.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Peter Evans, Tokyo evans@i.hosei.ac.jp

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Humanist Discussion Group
Information at <http://www.kcl.ac.uk/humanities/cch/humanist/>
<http://www.princeton.edu/~mccarty/humanist/>
=========================================================================